Scenario Planning Framework

Help me build scenario plans for [BUSINESS/DECISION/SITUATION]:

Context: [CURRENT SITUATION]
Time horizon: [1/3/5/10 YEARS]
Key uncertainties: [WHAT COULD GO EITHER WAY]
Critical success factors: [WHAT MATTERS MOST]

Create 4 scenarios:
1. **Best case**: What if everything goes right?
2. **Base case**: Most likely trajectory
3. **Downside**: Significant challenges materialize
4. **Black swan**: Low probability, high impact event

For each scenario:
- Narrative description
- Key assumptions
- Impact on revenue/costs/operations
- Trigger signals to watch
- Recommended strategic response
- Decisions to make now vs. wait-and-see